The 29th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 29 or the 29th Conference of the Parties), recently held in Baku, Azerbaijan, has come to a close, leaving a trail of mixed results.
Despite intense discussions and wide participation, one of the key areas—climate finance for vulnerable regions—remained unresolved. While developed nations pledged USD 300 billion annually by 2035 to assist developing countries in tackling climate change impacts and transitioning to cleaner energy, critics, including nations like Nigeria and India, highlighted that this figure falls far short of the estimated USD 1.3 trillion required each year.
India, in particular, has expressed disappointment over the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), calling it inadequate for the Global South’s needs.
A notable outcome from the conference was the advancement of carbon trading mechanisms under Article – 6 of the Paris Agreement, which allows high-emission countries to purchase carbon credits from developing nations. This could channel investments into climate-friendly projects like reforestation and renewable energy transitions. However, concerns linger about the potential for these systems to be exploited for “greenwashing”—presenting an image of progress while failing to enact substantial change.
Within the developing world, tensions also emerged. For instance, the Least Developed Countries called for USD 220 billion per year, while the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) demanded USD 39 billion, figures that were not incorporated into the final deal. Instead, the agreement calls for tripling public funds by 2030, but the lack of concrete figures leaves many questioning its effectiveness.
The Context of COP 29: A Climate Crisis in Urgent Need of Action
The urgency of addressing climate change has never been more pressing. Global temperatures have already risen by 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels, with severe consequences including more frequent heatwaves, storms, rising sea levels, and biodiversity loss. The goal to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, is increasingly at risk. Despite the 2030 climate targets set by many countries, emissions continue to rise, signalling that the world is veering off track. COP 29, therefore, represents a critical moment in determining whether nations can meet the climate challenges ahead.
Why Baku? The Symbolism of Azerbaijan
Baku, Azerbaijan’s capital, offered a unique backdrop for COP 29. Known for its oil and gas industry, Azerbaijan is both a significant energy producer and a country deeply affected by climate change. Issues such as desertification and water scarcity are felt first-hand, and this tension between fossil fuel reliance and the need for sustainable development added complexity to the conference’s discussions. Baku provided a platform for highlighting the importance of transitioning to cleaner energy sources while acknowledging the role of fossil fuel economies.
Key Themes at COP 29
COP 29 addressed several critical climate issues:
- Climate Finance: Securing sufficient funding for developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate impacts remains a central issue. Developing nations have historically contributed the least to global emissions but bear the brunt of climate impacts. COP 29 saw renewed calls for more substantial financing commitments from wealthier nations to meet the needs of vulnerable countries, with a focus on equity in resource distribution.
- Loss and Damage: The issue of “loss and damage” has gained traction in recent COPs, culminating in the creation of the Loss and Damage Fund at COP 27. COP 29 focused on operationalizing this fund, determining how contributions will be made and how resources will be distributed to countries suffering irreversible climate impacts. The challenge remains in persuading wealthier nations to contribute meaningfully to this fund.
- Emissions Reduction Targets: COP 29 was a key moment for countries to strengthen their commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the long-term goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, immediate reductions are crucial to staying within the 1.5°C target. Countries were under pressure to revise their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and outline concrete actions to cut emissions across sectors.
- Adaptation and Resilience: As climate impacts intensify, adaptation efforts are essential, particularly for countries most at risk. COP 29 saw continued focus on measures to build resilient infrastructure, protect ecosystems, and improve disaster preparedness in vulnerable regions. A more comprehensive and funded approach to adaptation was a key demand.
- Geopolitical Dynamics: The geopolitics of climate change is inextricably tied to the negotiations at COP 29. Tensions between developed and developing countries, as well as the role of major emitters, continue to shape discussions. Countries like the U.S., China, and the EU have substantial influence, and their climate policies will determine whether global targets can be met.
Major Emitters and the Global South: A Clash of Interests
The actions of the world’s largest emitters—China, the U.S., and the European Union—remain critical to the success of COP 29. Despite rejoining the Paris Agreement, the U.S. faces domestic political challenges, while China must balance development with climate commitments. The EU has taken a strong stance on climate action but grapples with internal challenges, particularly energy security concerns exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.
The Global South, including nations in Africa, Latin America, and the Pacific Islands, continues to call for climate justice and equitable treatment in negotiations. These countries are disproportionately affected by climate change but contribute little to global emissions. Their calls for more financial and technical support, particularly for adaptation, loss and damage, and mitigation, were central to the discussions.
The Role of Non-State Actors
Beyond governments, cities, businesses, and civil society organizations play an increasingly important role in global climate action. Local and regional governments are setting ambitious climate targets, and businesses are committing to net-zero emissions, though concerns about accountability remain. Youth-led movements, grassroots organizations, and indigenous groups continue to advocate for bold and inclusive climate solutions, urging governments to take more decisive action.
Challenges Ahead: Political Will and Global Pressures
Despite heightened awareness of the climate crisis, several challenges loom over COP 29:
- Political Will: The lack of political will remains a significant barrier to meaningful action. Governments face domestic pressures—economic concerns, political opposition, and the influence of fossil fuel industries—that often lead to weak climate pledges and slow implementation of policies.
- Equity and Justice: Climate justice remains a thorny issue, as countries in the Global South demand that wealthy nations take on a larger share of responsibility due to their historical emissions.
- Implementation: Even if ambitious targets are set, the real challenge lies in translating commitments into concrete action. Many countries face financial and governance constraints that hinder their ability to implement effective climate plans.
- Global Economic Pressures: Rising inflation, energy crises, and geopolitical tensions may divert attention from climate goals, especially in countries dealing with economic instability.
Looking Ahead: The Road Beyond COP 29
COP 29 has reaffirmed the need for immediate action, but it also leaves many questions unanswered.
The next Conference of the Parties (COP 30) will take place in Belém, Brazil from November 10–21, 2025. It needs to tackle even tougher targets. Yet, tougher targets mean little if nations are unable to fulfil existing commitments and if global emissions continue to rise.
COP 29 has made it clear that the road ahead is fraught with challenges, but the possibility of meaningful progress remains. The decisions made at this conference could still chart a path toward preventing the worst impacts of climate change. It is now up to global leaders to demonstrate the political will necessary to fulfil their promises and act on behalf of future generations.
